ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 24 1998

THE CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE SMALL AND CLOUD
TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.  HOWEVER...AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN
NOTED INTERMITTENTLY IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.  MORE IMPORTANTLY THE
SAME SHIP...CALL SIGN PFSJ...WHICH EARLIER REPORTED 36 KNOT WINDS
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...HAS REPORTED 58 KNOTS NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AT 18Z.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 60
KNOTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST...SINCE STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEARBY AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...AROUND 25 DEG CELSIUS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.

MOTION IS 245/10.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST OR REASONING.  HOWEVER SOME OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AND THE DEEP-LAYER BAM EVEN TURNS
NICOLE EASTWARD TO AFRICA LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE MORE SOUTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TRACKS MAY BE THE RESULT OF STEERING AROUND THE LARGER
SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE WITHIN WHICH THE STORM IS EMBEDDED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND MEDIUM/SHALLOW
LAYER BAM GUIDANCE...CONSISTENT WITH A MOVEMENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH. 

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 27.1N  31.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 26.5N  33.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  35.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N  36.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 26.5N  38.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 28.0N  40.0W    25 KTS
 
 
NNNN