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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE NOV 24 1998

A SHIP...WITH CALL SIGN PFSJ...REPORTED 36 KNOTS JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER.  THIS PRETTY MUCH CONFIRMS THE EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. 
THE STORM IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THIS IS
TYPICAL FOR THESE LATE-SEASON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SUBTROPICS.  NOT
MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED AND NICOLE IS LIKELY TO
ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WEAKEN.

THE STORM IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF WEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.  THE MOST REASONABLE STEERING SCENARIO FOR
NICOLE IS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE
PERIOD...AS IT ROUNDS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE.  A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD...IF IT SURVIVES.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 27.6N  31.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 27.1N  32.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 26.7N  35.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N  36.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N  37.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N  39.5W    20 KTS
 
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