ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED NOV 04 1998 MITCH DOES NOT LOOK VERY TROPICAL...AND IN FACT IF THIS WERE NOT THE REMNANTS OF MITCH WE WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE CALLING THIS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...TO BEST SERVE THE WARNING PROCESS AND HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFER TO THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON SHIP REPORTS AND RECON DATA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE RAINBANDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING...DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MITCH WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED FROM SATELLITE OR RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS AND IS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS. SOME RELOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THE NIGHT. THE CENTER IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE...BUT RATHER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DURING THE EVENING...A TORNADO-PRODUCING MESOCYCLONE WAS TRACKED WITH THE KEY WEST WSR-88D RADAR OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. WITH THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHEAST NEAR 23 KNOTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW FURTHER ACCELERATION AS MITCH TAKES ON FRONTAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND AVN MODEL OUTPUT AT 48 HOURS. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 25.3N 84.0W 45 KTS 12HR VT 05/1200Z 27.5N 80.5W 45 KTS 24HR VT 06/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W 45 KTS 36HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 70.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 07/0000Z 38.0N 62.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN