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TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED NOV 04 1998

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED AND IS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AXIS.  THE 18Z INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN PUSHED AHEAD A LITTLE TOO FAST ALONG THE TRACK...
HOWEVER...AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
SHIP OBSERVATIONS.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY HAVE
LOST SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING...MAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...COULD OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  MITCH IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER.

WITH THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING OVER THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONLY IN A FEW OF THE RAINBANDS WELL
EAST OF THE CENTER. 

CURRENT MOVEMENT IS NORTHEAST NEAR 20 KNOTS.  MOST NUMERICAL MODELS
SHOW FURTHER ACCELERATION AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH
IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.   THIS IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND AVN
MODEL OUTPUT AT 48-72 HOURS.
   
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 23.5N  85.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 25.5N  82.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  78.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  73.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 34.0N  67.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     07/1800Z 39.0N  54.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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