ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED NOV 04 1998
 
REPORTS FROM SHIPS AND SURFACE SITES INDICATE THAT MITCH IS NOT
COMPLETELY TROPICAL ANYMORE.  WHILE CONVECTION IS MINIMAL NEAR THE
CENTER AND WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM OF THE CENTER SEEM TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING IN A CONVECTIVE BAND BETWEEN 200 AND 300 NM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.   TO ACCOMMODATE THIS AND SIMPLIFY THE
WARNING PROCESS REQUIRES UPGRADING MITCH BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...
WITH 40 KT WINDS.  SOME FILLING IN OF THE WIND FIELD IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT DAY.  THE STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLICATED
FURTHER BY THE INCREASING INTERACTION BETWEEN MITCH AND THE
APPROACHING FRONT.
  
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE FL
PENINSULA AND FL KEYS.  NORTHWARD FROM THERE...WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO INCREASE AND COULD REACH GALE STRENGTH ALONG THE COAST AS MITCH
TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UPON LEAVING FLORIDA.  THIS
IS PREDICATED ON A NORTHEASTWARD FORECAST TRACK WITH INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED...AS IMPLIED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF MITCH STILL APPEARS TO BE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER...AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.
  
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 21.8N  88.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 23.2N  86.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 25.2N  83.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 27.9N  78.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.9N  73.4W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     07/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
NNNN