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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 04 1998
 
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MITCH IS WELL-REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER...WITH ONE AREA OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND ANOTHER LARGER
AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 30 KT...BRINGING MITCH TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
WHICH HAS MITCH RE-STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO FAVORABLE SST/S
AND INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. MITCH IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER 
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE.
REGARDLESS...THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY MITCH IS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.  THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE RAIN SHIELD IS JUST WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. 

INFRARED-BASED SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB PLACE THE POORLY-
DEFINED CENTER OF MITCH OVER THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN MERIDA AND CARMEN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
OBSERVATION FROM MERIDA SHOWS A SSW WIND SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER
MAY BE REFORMING TO THE NORTH JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE 06Z TRACK PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS WITH A CLUSTERING ON A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...AT VARYING SPEEDS. BAMD AND LBAR ARE THE
NORTHERNMOST OF THE TRACKS WHILE THE GFLD AND NOGAP SOLUTIONS ARE
THE FURTHEST SOUTH BRINGING MITCH THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS TRACK. AS STATED EARLIER MITCH IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NOT LONG AFTER
PASSING THE FLORIDA AREA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED TROPICAL STORM  WARNINGS
FOR THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PROGRESO TO CARMEN. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER OF MITCH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
BY 36 HOURS NO WATCHES WILL BE POSTED AT THIS. RATHER...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE CENTER LOCATION MENTIONED ABOVE WE WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
...ALONG WITH AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE...WILL BE AVAILABLE TO BETTER
PINPOINT THE CENTER LOCATION. 
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 20.8N  89.4W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     04/1800Z 21.8N  88.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 23.6N  84.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 25.6N  81.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  77.3W    35 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 33.5N  67.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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