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TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 03 1998
 
IN FLYING THROUGH MITCH EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
PROVIDED CENTER FIXES BUT HAD TO SEARCH AROUND A BIT TO DO SO AS THE
INNER CIRCULATION WAS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL FORMED.  GIVEN THAT THE
SYSTEM IS NOW CENTERED OVER LAND...THE WINDS HAVE LIKELY DECREASED
TO NEAR 35 KT...DESPITE THE BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION NOTED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  MITCH COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT.
 
MITCH COULD AGAIN RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE ONCE ITS CENTER LEAVES THE
YUCATAN AND MOVES OVER THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO.  OUTPUT FROM THE 18Z AVN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MITCH
COULD UNDERGO A MODEST RESTRENGTHENING DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE/S INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT.  EITHER WAY...MITCH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER
WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PRECEDE THE CENTER AND...GIVEN THE
FORECAST MOTION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE TO THE SE OF
THE CENTER.
 
THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE TAKES MITCH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
EITHER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OR THE FL STRAITS...EXCEPT THE GFDL
WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM.  THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF SPEEDS
FORECAST...HOWEVER...WITH 72 HOUR POINTS STRETCHING FROM THE NW
BAHAMAS TO THE AZORES.  THE NHC TRACK REPRESENTS AN INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
MITCH IS EXPECTED TO EFFECTIVELY MERGE WITH THE FRONT AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL NOT LONG AFTER PASSING THE FL AREA.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 20.2N  90.2W    35 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.3N  88.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  85.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 25.1N  82.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 27.2N  78.3W    35 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N  69.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

 
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