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TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 03 1998

ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
UNIMPRESSIVE...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A 997 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND 1500-FOOT WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS.  HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
VORTEX THAT MAY BE REVOLVING AROUND A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE.  
MITCH IS NOW BEING RE-UPGRADED TO A 40-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  IT
SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER THE INTENSE
HURRICANE THAT IT ONCE WAS...AND SHOULD WEAKEN WHEN IT MOVES OVER
YUCATAN.  LATER ON...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.  

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ACCELERATION...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM GUIDANCE.

ASSUMING THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY...THE
MAIN IMPACT OF MITCH SHOULD BE RAINFALL.  
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 19.4N  91.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.2N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.7N  87.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N  84.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N  80.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.0N  72.0W    30 KTS
 
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