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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 01 1998

THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
HAS CONTINUED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A DAY OR TWO.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES WEST OF MITCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS.  THE AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BREAKING DOWN WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS MITCH MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD...IF IT SURVIVES.

SINCE THE FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE MITCH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...ALTHOUGH THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.

THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME POORLY-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE...AS IT
CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASS OF GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  MOREOVER...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INHIBITED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES.   

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 14.9N  91.6W    25 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     02/0000Z 15.3N  92.6W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     02/1200Z 16.2N  93.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N  94.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N  94.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  93.0W    30 KTS
 
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