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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT OCT 31 1998
 
IR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 8 KT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND
IMPLY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS PROBABLY BASED AROUND 6000 FT.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT GIVEN
THAT MITCH HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER LAND FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS...IT
RETAINS A RATHER WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MITCH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH
ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A TRACK THAT BENDS TO THE WNW AND
THEN NW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN AND WOULD KEEP MITCH
OVER LAND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  WITH NO NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE
12Z...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING AND BE SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 14.6N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     01/1200Z 15.1N  91.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     02/0000Z 15.8N  92.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.1N  93.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N  94.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N  93.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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