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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT OCT 31 1998
 
12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER OF MITCH IS POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT...SATELLITE-BASED FIXES ALSO SUPPORT THIS ALTHOUGH THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS BY NO MEANS WELL-DEFINED.  THERE HAVE NOT
BEEN ANY REPORTS OF 34 KNOT WINDS FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS AND LAND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 10-20 KNOT WINDS.  THUS...MITCH IS BEING
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS NOW 30 KNOTS.  THE GOVERNMENTS OF MEXICO...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA HAVE BEEN CONTACTED AND ARE DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE COASTLINES.  WE HAVE BEEN
UNABLE TO CONTACT HONDURAS BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONCUR.
 
BASED ON THE POSITION ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/06
KNOTS. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BREAKING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE NHC TRACK 
CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS..IN CLOSEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK HAS THE
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA...WITH
PEAKS OF 8000-13000 FT.  THUS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG
AS FORECAST.

MITCH CONTINUES TO UP IN MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC HELPING 
FUEL SOME DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN EL SALVADOR...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HONDURAS
...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE ADJACENT EAST PACIFIC WATERS.  HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
 
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER
COULD MOVE INTO...OR REFORM OVER...PACIFIC WATERS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 14.5N  88.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.7N  89.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     01/1200Z 14.9N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     02/0000Z 15.4N  91.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     02/1200Z 16.0N  92.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N  94.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
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