ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT OCT 31 1998
 
THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
HONDURAS AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGES.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/06.  THERER ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE 500 MB HIGH IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING REPLACE BY WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS
AND MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW MOTION FOR 72
HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING A SLOW
NORTHWARD TURN.
 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS GONE FROM OVER THE WATER NORTH OF HONDURAS
AND THE WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THERE.  A HUGE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND EXTENDS 
OVER EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR.
 
EVEN THOUGH IS IS NOT PART OF THE FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE CENTER COULD MOVE OR REFORM OVER PACIFIC WATERS...REQUIRING
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 14.2N  87.9W    35 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     31/1800Z 13.9N  88.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N  89.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     01/1800Z 14.8N  90.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     02/0600Z 15.5N  91.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     03/0600Z 17.5N  92.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN