ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI OCT 30 1998 WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS...MITCH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTENSE CONVECTION PRIMARILY NEAR THE PACIFIC BORDER AREA OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IN THAT AREA...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -90C HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY GOES SATELLITE AND IMPLY THAT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE. WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG ALONG THE HONDURAS CARIBBEAN COAST...WITH 45-50 KT NOTED EARLIER THIS EVENING AT ROATAN. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS NOW OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS AND MOVING TOWARD ABOUT 250 DEGREES NEAR 6 KT. WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN IN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH FOR SOME DAYS...THE 18Z AVN NOW INDICATES THAT CHANGE SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF CORRECT ...AND IF MITCH SURVIVES THAT LONG...THEN MITCH COULD BE PULLED TOWARD THE NW OR NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THAT PROGRESSION AND IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...EL SALVADOR...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 14.4N 87.3W 45 KTS...INLAND 12HR VT 31/1200Z 14.5N 88.1W 40 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 01/0000Z 14.7N 89.1W 30 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 01/1200Z 15.4N 90.2W 30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 02/0000Z 16.1N 91.2W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 03/0000Z 18.0N 92.0W 30 KTS...INLAND NNNN