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TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI OCT 30 1998
CORRECTION TO INITIAL LONGITUDE 

THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED
AND IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/02.
ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP-
LAYER-MEAN HIGH LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIFTING
EASTWARD.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE NOGAPS AND GFDL
FORECASTS AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE UKMET AND AVIATION MODEL AND IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER WATER TO KNOW
WHETHER MITCH IS STILL OF STORM STRENGTH.  AN AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE THE WIND SPEEDS.  MEANWHILE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAVE THE WIND SPEED AT 35 KNOTS FOR 72
HOURS AS THERE IS STILL AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURES AND THE CENTER COULD STILL DRIFT
BACK OVER WATER.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
THE PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM MITCH.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 15.3N  86.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.4N  87.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.8N  87.8W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     01/1200Z 17.3N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  90.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
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