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TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU OCT 29 1998

THE CENTER OF MITCH REMAINS OVER LAND AND THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN.  CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 45 KNOTS.  IT IS STILL
PRESUMED THAT THE CENTER WILL EMERGE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE SYSTEM WOULD
BECOME VERY WEAK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.  

MOTION HAS BEEN ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS
A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  IN FACT THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS WERE
INITIALIZED WITH A VERY SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  IN SPITE OF
THIS...ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS PREDICT A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.  THE NOGAPS...
BAROTROPIC AND THE MEDIUM/DEEP-LAYER BAM SHOW A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH THIS
GUIDANCE...THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. 

AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW MITCH BECOMING A THREAT
TO THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MORE FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES APPEAR LIKELY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
NICARAGUA...SO THE FLOOD THREAT IN THAT AREA APPEARS TO BE
PARTICULARLY SERIOUS.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 15.5N  85.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.8N  85.8W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.4N  86.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.0N  87.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N  87.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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