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TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU OCT 29 1998
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND SATELLITE ANALYSTS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF MITCH IS NOW OVER LAND...HAVING DRIFTED SOUTHWARD TODAY.
HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT.  STEADY WINDS OF
50 KT WERE REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO FROM TRUJILLO HONDURAS BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF HONDURAS.  MITCH IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH 50 KT WINDS.
 
THIS MORNINGS GFDL SHOWS A SOUTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN A NW HEADING WITH LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 72
HOURS.  THE 12Z NOGAPS IS QUALITATIVELY SIMILAR...AND BOTH ARE
CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS MADE FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  
 
THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE REPLACED BY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM
HONDURAS THROUGH THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR BELIZE.  AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW
MITCH BECOMING A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
 
MORE RAIN AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 15.9N  85.8W    50 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W    45 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.2N  86.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.8N  86.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.5N  87.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
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