ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM EST THU OCT 29 1998 MITCH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DURING THAT PERIOD...THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A SLOW NW MOTION...AS NOTED 6 HOURS AGO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES A NW MOTION THROUGH 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REFLECTS THIS...BRINGING MITCH TO NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN OR BELIZE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE GFDL IS THE OUTLIER THIS MORNING...SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR ANOTHER 3 DAYS. THE LONGER TERM TRACK REMAINS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z NOGAPS AND MRF SHOWING AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO THE NORTH ALLOWING MITCH TO THEN MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND MAYBE THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ON THE EARLY MORNING RECON MISSION WERE 72 KT. THE PRESSURE WAS THEN UP TO 987 MB. INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 65 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MITCH WILL WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT IF IT BEGINS TO MOVE AS FORECAST THEN SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR WHEN THE CENTER PULLS AWAY FROM LAND AND THE LOCALLY COOLER UPWELLED WATERS. FOR NOW...THE WARNINGS ARE UNCHANGED. MORE RAIN AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.0N 85.6W 65 KTS 12HR VT 30/0000Z 16.2N 86.0W 65 KTS 24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 86.3W 65 KTS 36HR VT 31/0000Z 17.1N 87.0W 65 KTS 48HR VT 31/1200Z 18.2N 87.7W 65 KTS 72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 88.5W 45 KTS...INLAND NNNN