ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU OCT 29 1998 THE LATEST CENTER FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PLACES THE CENTER OF MITCH ON THE CAPE OF HONDURAS. BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS OF RECON FIXES THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND MAYBE DOING ANOTHER CYCLONIC LOOP. MITCH WILL BE HELD QUASI-STATIONARY INITIALLY...WITH A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FORECAST BY 12 HOURS. RECON DATA SHOWS THAT MITCH HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE NOW UP TO 979 MB...A 41 MB RISE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DROPWINDSONDE DATA SHOWS 74 KNOTS AT 922 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ON THE COAST OR DRIFTS FARTHER INLAND...BUT IF THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER OPEN WATERS AS FORECAST RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SOME SCATTER A FAIR NUMBER HAVE REACHED A CONSENSUS ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLIPER...ALL THE MODELS BRING MITCH INLAND EITHER OVER BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH HAD A NORTHWARD HEADING AT 00Z...NOW SHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING THE HURRICANE INTO NORTHERN BELIZE AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT MAINTAINS THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP AND NOGAPS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH FORMING EAST OF MITCH IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THIS MAY IMPART A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE ALSO IMPACTING OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MAJOR THREAT...PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.0N 85.9W 75 KTS 12HR VT 29/1800Z 16.5N 86.5W 70 KTS 24HR VT 30/0600Z 16.9N 87.1W 75 KTS 36HR VT 30/1800Z 17.6N 87.7W 80 KTS 48HR VT 31/0600Z 18.5N 88.2W 80 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 88.5W 65 KTS...INLAND NNNN