ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED OCT 28 1998 MITCH HAS BEEN STAGNATED NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CONTINUED INTERACTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS CIRCULATION WITH HONDURAS AND UPWELLING OF COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE COAST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A STEADY WEAKENING. LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A BREAKDOWN OF THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY...BUT IF THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER OPEN WATERS...RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DIVERSE. THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT OTHER MODELS PREDICT A NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN SHOWS VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500 MB LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER THIS MODEL DOES SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF MITCH IN 2-3 DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB MAY BREAK DOWN THE GULF RIDGE AND COULD STEER MITCH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN. STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE ALSO IMPACTING OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE IS ALSO A MAJOR THREAT... PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.3N 86.0W 85 KTS 12HR VT 29/1200Z 16.5N 86.5W 80 KTS 24HR VT 30/0000Z 17.0N 87.0W 80 KTS 36HR VT 30/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W 80 KTS 48HR VT 31/0000Z 18.5N 88.0W 85 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0000Z 20.5N 88.0W 70 KTS...INLAND NNNN