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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED OCT 28 1998
 
WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE FORECAST
A WESTWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MITCH HAS
MOVED VERY LITTLE...IN FACT LESS THAN 40 NM IN THE PAST 18 HOURS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO CAMPS OF FUTURE TRACKS.  THE FIRST INCLUDES
THE MODEL THAT HAS PERFORMED THE BEST SO FAR...NOGAPS.  THE NOGAPS
HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED AN EVENTUAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...WHEN ITS
REPRESENTATION OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
SHIFTS EASTWARD OF MITCH/S LONGITUDE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE MOST
RECENT GFDL...LBAR AND BAMD ARE NOW SIMILAR TO NOGAPS.  THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TOWARD THE WNW TO NW.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE
FIRST GROUP...THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHIFTS THE THREE DAY POSITION A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS IS A
SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT CHANGE FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST--
MITCH WILL CONTINUE BATTERING PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS...AND COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION
AFTER THAT.
 
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM...BUT NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE
CURRENT INTENSITY.  A CONTINUED INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH
LAND COULD RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING.  PERHAPS UPWELLING WILL LEAD
TO SOME WEAKENING AS WELL.  IF MITCH BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THEN
THE WEAKENING TREND WOULD LIKELY BE ARRESTED AND EVEN SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR.
 
THE RECON DATA SHOW A PAIR OF WIND MAXIMA IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE RADII FOR 64 KT AND 50 KT HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
COVER THE OUTERMOST LOCATION OF THESE SPEEDS.
 
VERY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.  RAINFALL FROM THIS
SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR THREAT...PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 16.4N  85.6W   105 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.6N  85.8W   100 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.1N  86.3W    95 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.7N  86.8W    95 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.7N  87.2W    90 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N  87.5W    80 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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