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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED OCT 28 1998
 
MITCH HAS BEEN MEANDERING THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF GUANAJA
AND THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS.  THE LATEST FIX FROM THE U.S. AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF
OUR 03Z POSITION...WITH SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.  THE HURRICANE MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MAKING A CYCLONIC LOOP.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CURRENT MOTION
MITCH WILL BE HELD STATIONARY WITH A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
 
THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE DEFINITION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 
IS 941 MB...UP 8 MB SINCE THE LAST PENETRATION AROUND 00Z. THE RECON
MESSAGE ALSO MENTIONED THAT THE EYE WAS FILLING IN. THUS...THE
WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
REPORTED WAS 120 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE IN EARLIER
MISSIONS THE DROPWINDSONDE DATA SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 115 KNOTS...MINIMUM CATEGORY
FOUR STATUS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HURRICANE TO THE LANDMASS OF
HONDURAS...SERVING TO CUT OFF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH...
HAS PROBABLY BEEN THE PRIMARY CULPRIT BEHIND MITCH/S WEAKENING. WITH
A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE ANTICIPATION OF THE
RESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BACK OVER WATER...MITCH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
FORMIDABLE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS OFFER LITTLE TO HELP RESOLVE THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE 06Z TRACK MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR 00Z
COUNTERPARTS DISPLAYING CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. THE SOLUTIONS VARY
FROM A WEST MOTION...THE A98E STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...TO A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH MOTION...BAMD AND LBAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK SHOWS A RESUMPTION OF A WEST TRACK BY 12 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS WITH MITCH MAKING LANDFALL BY
48 HOURS. THIS TRACK REPRESENTS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
   
VERY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BATTER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. COPIOUS
RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR 
THREAT...PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 16.3N  85.6W   115 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N  86.0W   105 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 16.6N  86.8W   100 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N  87.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  88.0W    90 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     31/0600Z 19.5N  88.5W    60 KTS...INLAND

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