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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE OCT 27 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/05 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION.
NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS SLOW WEST TO NORTH
MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET IS WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR 72
HOURS.  THE GFDL IS SLOW WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD SIMILAR TO THE LBAR
BUT SLOWER.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A LANDFALL FOR THE FIRST TIME...ON THE
BELIZE COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS
UNCERTAIN.  HONDURAS....GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ALL
STILL POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS.
 
RECENT AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 929 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE...UP 12 MB FROM 12 HOURS AGO.  A DROPSONDE SHOWS
WIND SPEEDS STILL NEAR 130 KNOTS NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE.  THE
WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 135 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 16.8N  85.8W   135 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W   130 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.8N  87.3W   125 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.2N  88.0W   120 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.8N  88.5W    90 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     30/1800Z 18.5N  89.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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