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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE OCT 27 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/05...BASED ON A POSITION ESTIMATE
FROM A 12Z GOES10 IMAGE.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW
MOTION.  THE GFDL IS ALMOST STATIONARY FOR 72 HOURS AND THE NOGAPS
SHOWS A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD DRIFT.   THE LBAR SHOWS A NORTHWEST
DRIFT.  THE UKMET IS FASTER THAN THE OTHERS AND MOVES THE HURRICANE
WESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOW WEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IT
WOULD ONLY TAKE A 5 KNOT ERROR IN THE FORECAST SPEED OF MOTION FOR
THE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS ANYWHERE IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN.

THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED 10 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAGGEDNESS OF THE
DEEPEST  CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER...ALONG WITH THE 06Z RECON
DATA WHICH SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE UP 12 MB AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 115 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...BASED ON THE SHIPS
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL AND THE PROXIMATY TO LAND.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 17.3N  85.0W   145 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 17.4N  85.8W   145 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.8N  86.5W   140 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N  86.7W   135 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 18.2N  86.9W   130 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N  87.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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