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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON OCT 26 1998
 
MITCH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
906 MB.  A WIND SPEED OF 173 KNOTS WAS MEASURED FROM A GPS
DROPSONDE AT 500 FT AT ABOUT 1900Z.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO
155 KNOTS AT 21Z ON THIS BASIS.  THIS MAY BE THE STRONGEST ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE IN RECENT YEARS TO BE OBSERVED AS LATE AS OCTOBER
26.  IT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY FOR THIS STRENGTH TO PERSIST
AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT
MITCH IS EXPECTED STILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07.  ONCE AGAIN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOTION WITH A 500 MB HIGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GFDL MEANDERS THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AND SHOWS A POSITION STILL IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IN
FIVE (5) DAYS.  THE NOGAPS SHOWS A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN
THREE DAYS AND THE UKMET SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...REACHING
BELIZE OR MEXICO IN THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE ABOVE MODELS SHOWING VERY SLOW MOTION FOR 72 HOURS WITH A TURN
TO THE NORTH.
 
IT IS NOT YET CLEAR WHICH COUNTRY OR COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN ARE MOST THREATENED.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE HURRICANE TO
HONDURAS MOTIVATED THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ALL OF THEIR COASTLINE.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 17.1N  83.6W   155 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  84.4W   155 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N  85.2W   150 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N  85.4W   140 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 18.2N  85.5W   135 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N  85.5W   125 KTS
 
 
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