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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON OCT 26 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/07...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE LAST
ADVISORY.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE HURRICANE MEANDERING
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HOURS.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS
SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION AS A HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS 
SOUTHWESTWARD AND BLOCKS THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
DRIFTS THE HURRICANE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD...BUT SUCH
SLOW FORWARD SPEED MAKES THE DIRECTION OF MOTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN SURFACE WIND IS INCREASED TO 135 KNOTS BASED ON
7.0 TO 7.5 DVORAK T NUMBERS.  THIS IS STILL A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE
OF THE WIND SPEED.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL WHICH
INDICATES THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
MAINTAIN 135 KT WINDS FOR 72 HOURS. 

I HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT BELIZE OR HONDURAS FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
IT MAY SOON BE TIME TO CONSIDER A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BELIZE AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. 

LAWRENCE 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 16.7N  82.9W   135 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.8N  83.8W   135 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.2N  84.7W   135 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.5N  84.8W   130 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.8N  84.9W   120 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.0N  85.0W   110 KTS
 
 
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