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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN OCT 25 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE
SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION
MODEL SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS BUT STILL VERY SLOW
MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH 72 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MOTION IS SO
SLOW THAT THE GFDL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS CONSIDERED TO BE IN THE
NOISE LEVEL.
 
THE HURRICANE IS NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS SO THAT A HURRICANE
WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD SOON BE APPROPRIATE.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN TO 924 MB BASED ON A RECENT RECON FIX AND A FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND SPEED OF 155 KNOTS WAS REPORTED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS ON
THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS.  MITCH
COULD SOON BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
SCALE.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 16.6N  80.7W   130 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.8N  81.7W   135 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.2N  82.6W   135 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  83.0W   135 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N  83.5W   125 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  84.0W   115 KTS
  
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