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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN OCT 25 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/06.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HURS.  THE GFDL AND
NOGAPS ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST MODELS SHOWING A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
HONDURAS IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR SLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE IS AT ITS POINT OF
CLOSEST APPROACH TO JAMAICA AT THIS TIME.  THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
PASS WITHIN 125 NMI OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
THE LATEST RECON REPORTED 942 MB AND 124 KNOTS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF
700 MB AND THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.
THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WIND SPEED TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 16.3N  79.8W   115 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.7N  80.7W   120 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N  81.8W   120 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.2N  82.6W   120 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 17.4N  83.1W   115 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N  84.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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