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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING 340 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE BEGINNING OF THE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.  LATEST GFDL CONTINUES TO MOVE MITCH TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND KEEPS IT MEANDERING NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS.  OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  
 
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTENSIFYING HURRICANE WITH T
NUMBERS OF 6.0 AND 5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 105 KTS...CATEGORY 3.  SHIPS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN
IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...MITCH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH 115 KTS IN 12 HOURS AND CATEGORY 4 IN 24 HOURS. 

DUE TO THE FORECAST NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE ...CUBA SHOULD
BE READY TO EXTEND OR SHIFT THE HURRICANE WATCH TO CENTRAL OR
WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO ISSUE A
WATCH OR A WARNING.
 
NOTE: THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME TIME FOR THE LONG RANGE PATTERN
TO CHANGE AND CONSEQUENTLY A FUTURE CHANGE IN THE TRACK.  INTERESTS
IN THE ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS
HURRICANE.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 15.7N  78.4W   105 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.2N  78.6W   115 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.9N  79.1W   120 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.7N  79.9W   120 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N  80.9W   120 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.3N  83.0W   120 KTS
 
 
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