ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998 THE HURRICANE IS MOVING 355 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MOVES MITCH TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND KEEPS IT MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS. ONLY CLIPER CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK. I WOULD RATHER FOLLOW STATE OF THE ART DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS AND FORECAST THE WESTWARD TURN. RECON JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 976 MB AND A DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL MEASURED 93 KNOTS AT LOW LEVELS. SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. MODELS DID AN EXCELLENT JOB IN DEVELOPING THE 200MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...CONTRARY TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. SHIPS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...MITCH IS EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 120 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS. DUE TO THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FORECAST NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE ...CUBA SHOULD BE READY TO EXTEND OR SHIFT THE HURRICANE WATCH TO CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO ISSUE A WATCH OR A WARNING. NOTE: THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME TIME FOR THE LONG RANGE PATTERN TO CHANGE AND CONSEQUENTLY A FUTURE CHANGE IN THE TRACK. INTERESTS IN THE ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS HURRICANE. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 15.3N 78.2W 90 KTS 12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 78.3W 100 KTS 24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.8N 78.6W 110 KTS 36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 120 KTS 48HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 80.5W 120 KTS 72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KTS NNNN