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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/06.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
AVIATION MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 24
HOURS.  ONLY THE LBAR AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GET
PICKED UP BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE
GFDL WAS NOT AVAILABLE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD
SPEED.  THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BEING INFLUENCED BY THE LBAR FORECAST.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.  IF A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...A WARNING WILL BE NEEDED
FOR JAMAICA VERY SOON.
 
AN IMPRESSIVE CDO HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN
CONNECTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING TREND INDICATED ON THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE FORMING.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 90 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS AND A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL FLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH AN ABSENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 100 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 14.9N  77.9W    85 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.8N  78.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.8N  78.6W   100 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N  79.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.2N  80.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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