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HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998
 
A RAGGED EYE BEGAN APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY AROUND 0415Z AND A
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION BY THE AFWA AT THAT TIME GAVE A T-NUMBER OF
4.5.  THE 06Z TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES WERE 4.5 AND 4.0...
RESPECTIVELY.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARRIVED IN THE AREA ABOUT 06Z
AND FOUND THE CENTER TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SE OF THE POSITION
INFERRED FROM SATELLITE PICTURES.  THEY ALSO FOUND HINTS OF AN EYE
...992 MB PRESSURE...AND 64 KT AT 850 MB. TWO HOURS LATER...THEY HAD
A PARTIAL EYEWALL...988 MB...AND 91 KT AT 850 MB.  BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.
 
MITCH HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD 015 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KT OVER THE PAST
6 TO 12 HOURS.  THIS MOTION COULD HAVE BEEN INDUCED BY THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST.  THAT
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND TO BE FOLLOWED BY RIDGING. 
THERE WAS NO 00Z RUN OF THE GFDL...BUT THE REMAINING TRACK MODELS
AND THE 18Z GFDL RESPOND TO THESE STEERING FEATURES BY SHOWING A
RATHER SHARP BEND IN THE TRACK TOWARD THE LEFT AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.
IN FACT...NONE OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE MITCH NORTH OF 17N BY 36
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE...BUT
MAKES THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THEN ALL BUT
ONE OF THE MODELS...ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA.  THIS MIGHT BE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...OR POSSIBLY A HURRICANE
WATCH...COULD BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR THAT ISLAND.
 
WITH STRENGTHENING HAVING RESUMED...AND A FUTURE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE.
 
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE RECON DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP ZCBN5.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 14.3N  77.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.2N  77.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.1N  77.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.7N  78.1W   100 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N  79.1W   100 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N  81.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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