ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 1998 IT APPEARS THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED TO THE CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE TREND IS FOR THIS CLOUDINESS TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS A CDO TYPE AREA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE TO UP 55 KNOTS. THE LAST RECON FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE HRD OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GIVES A MAX WIND OF 43 KNOTS. THE INITIAL OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY OBVIOUS NEGATIVE FACTORS TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. A REMINDER THAT INTENSITY FORECAST SKILL IS QUITE LIMITED AND INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TREND TURNS OUT TO BE A SERIOUS ONE. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW SLOW MOTION FOR 72 HOURS...MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD...EXCEPT THE AVIATION AND GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE NORTHWARD FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOTION IS RELATED TO A 500 MB HIGH FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BLOCK THE STORMS FORWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE WITH A SLOW MOTION...MOSTLY NORTHWARD FOR 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 12 AND 24 HOURS. IN ANY CASE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO THREAT TO LAND DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 13.5N 78.2W 50 KTS 12HR VT 24/1200Z 14.1N 78.3W 55 KTS 24HR VT 25/0000Z 15.0N 78.5W 60 KTS 36HR VT 25/1200Z 15.4N 79.4W 65 KTS 48HR VT 26/0000Z 15.8N 80.1W 70 KTS 72HR VT 27/0000Z 17.0N 81.5W 75 KTS NNNN