ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 1998 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS WANED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF MITCH IS HEALTHY. SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS WELL-DEFINED BANDING AND FAIR OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 AND 55 KNOTS... RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THE 00Z NCEP AND NAVY GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM EARLIER RUNS OF MOVING THE UPPER LOW OVER HONDURAS SOUTHWEST ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. HENCE... CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS. MITCH HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE BAHAMAS LIFTS OUT ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER MITCH ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...AS ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL AND NOGAPS TURN MITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST...THE EARLIEST...NEAR 16N. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ANOTHER U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION IS SCHEDULED LATER TODAY. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME BUT INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 13.0N 77.5W 50 KTS 12HR VT 23/1800Z 13.9N 77.7W 60 KTS 24HR VT 24/0600Z 15.0N 78.0W 70 KTS 36HR VT 24/1800Z 15.9N 78.5W 75 KTS 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.9N 79.3W 80 KTS 72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 81.0W 80 KTS NNNN