ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/37.  THE AVIATION MODEL AS WELL
AS OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM BEING SWEPT NORTHWARD BY A
DEEP CUTOFF EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE MODELS
THEN SHOW A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE EAST IN 24 HOURS AS THE STORM RUNS
INTO WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE
AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS FOLLOWING DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS.  AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED.
 
LISA IS NOT LOOKING VERY TROPICAL.  IT IS BEING STEERED BY A HUGE
BAROCLINIC LOW AND HAS FRONTAL TYPE CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED THAT
EXTEND A THOUSAND MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY AND TURNED OVER TO
THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 39.0N  38.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 44.5N  37.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     10/0600Z 50.0N  32.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     10/1800Z 51.0N  23.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     11/0600Z 51.0N  13.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
NNNN