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TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 08 1998
 
SATELLITE T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0/3.0/3.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...GLOBAL
RESPECTIVELY. SSM/I IMAGERY AT 1900 GMT SHOWED A WELL STRUCTURED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A MAJOR BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND ON THE
EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER.  INITIAL WINDS REMAIN AT 60 KNOTS
AT THIS TIME.
 
LISA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM.  CURRENT MOTION IS 355/40 KNOTS.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION
CONTINUE TO MERGE LISA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THEN MOVE THE
COMBINED SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS KEEP
LISA AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND MOVE IT NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE
EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LAST SOLUTION BUT MAKES THE
SYSTEM EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 34.7N  37.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 40.5N  38.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 47.0N  39.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     10/1200Z 50.0N  35.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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