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TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 08 1998

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED GIVING THE APPEARANCE THAT
LISA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. THE STORM HAS SOME BANDING FEATURES
AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THIS APPARENT STRENGTHENING WAS
PROBABLY CAUSED EITHER BY THE EFFECT OF A WEAKER SHEAR OR TROUGH
INTERACTION...OR BOTH.  INDEED...THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
HIGHER BUT SINCE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP
THE INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. 

LISA IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD...ABOUT 23 KNOTS...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONTAL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODELS AND MAKES LISA EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.   

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 27.6N  39.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  38.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 35.0N  38.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 39.0N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     10/1200Z 43.5N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     11/1200Z 49.5N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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