ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 07 1998 THE CENTER OF LISA REMAINS SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTH- WESTERLY FLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK NUMBERS. NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS THE SHEARING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. LISA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/17 KTS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND A 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO FORM TO ITS WEST. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO TURN LISA NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW. LISA WILL PROBABLY INTERACT WITH THE LOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 23.5N 43.4W 50 KTS 12HR VT 08/1200Z 25.6N 41.9W 50 KTS 24HR VT 09/0000Z 29.0N 40.0W 50 KTS 36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.0N 39.0W 50 KTS 48HR VT 10/0000Z 37.5N 38.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0000Z 47.0N 37.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN