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TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 07 1998
 
THE CENTER OF LISA HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION
AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHEARED.  INITIAL IS 50 KNOTS
AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK NUMBERS AND CHRIS VELDEN'S HIGH
RESOLUTION ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS.  NO
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER... THERE
IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE RELATIVE SHEAR
DIMINISHES TEMPORARILY AS LISA MOVES WITHIN THE PREVAILING DEEP
LAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
 
LISA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  LISA IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND A 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW WHICH IS
FORECAST TO FORM TO ITS WEST.  MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO TURN LISA
NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING
CUT-OFF LOW.  LISA WILL PROBABLY INTERACT WITH THE LOW AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.  
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 22.0N  45.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 23.3N  43.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 26.0N  41.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 29.5N  39.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 33.5N  39.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     10/1800Z 42.5N  39.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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