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TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 07 1998
 
LISA IS VERY CLOSE TO ONE OF THE DRIFTING BUOYS WHICH JUST REPORTED
WINDS TO NEAR 60 KNOTS WHILE SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 45
TO 50 KNOTS.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS SHEARED.  INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS AND NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER... THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IF THE RELATIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TEMPORARILY AS LISA
MOVES WITHIN THE PREVAILING DEEP LAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
 
LISA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  LISA IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND A 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW WHICH FORECAST
TO FORM TO ITS WEST.  MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO TURN LISA NORTHWARD
AND EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IS RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF
LOW.  LISA WOULD PROBABLY INTERACT WITH THE LOW AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 21.0N  46.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 22.7N  44.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 25.5N  42.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  40.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 42.0N  40.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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