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TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOME ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS
AROUND A STRONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A TURN TO THE
NORTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE GFDL...AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS.

THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM A
DRIFTING BOUY LOCATED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.O T NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT
45 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 18.9N  48.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  47.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 22.0N  45.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 24.5N  43.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 27.5N  40.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 36.0N  40.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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