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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING REVEAL A WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NW AND N OF THE
CENTER.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED A
LITTLE TO THE SW OF THE CENTER OF THE DEEPER CLOUD CIRCULATION.
DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS ARE 4.5/5.0 AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KT.  

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD 045 DEGREES AT 29 KT...ACCELERATING JUST AHEAD
OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE
HEADING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THAT
PERIOD.
 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 38.3N  41.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 41.1N  37.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 43.6N  28.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     29/0000Z 45.0N  19.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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