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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998
 
KARL REMAINS A SMALL COMPACT INTENSE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE-BASED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS INVOLVED WITH
A FRONTAL ZONE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS KARL
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 36 HOURS.
 
KARL HAS REALLY BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE PAST
SIX HOURS.  SIX HOUR MOTION IS 22 KTS...THREE HOUR MOTION IS 25 KTS
AND A ONE HOUR MOTION IS 30 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
040/29 KNOTS.  MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE
IN WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENT ACCELERATIONS IN
THE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE BUT MUCH FASTER.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 36.6N  44.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 40.0N  41.1W    90 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 43.3N  33.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 44.7N  25.8W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     29/0600Z 45.5N  19.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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