ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH
LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5.  NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND BEGINS
ACCELERATING EASTWARD.  IN 36 HOURS...MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AT 48 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/16 KNOTS...CONTINUING THE TREND TO
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKS IT UP.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND A LITTLE SLOWER THEN THE BEST GUIDANCE MODELS WHICH
SHOW THE SYSTEM OVER EUROPE IN 72 HOURS.
 
GROSS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 33.1N  48.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  46.8W    75 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 37.6N  43.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 40.2N  39.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 42.7N  32.8W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     29/1800Z 46.2N  14.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN