ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND BEGINS ACCELERATING EASTWARD...IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT 48 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/13 KNOTS...SHOWING THE HURRICANE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PICKS IT UP. THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS CONSIDERABLY GREATER ACCELERATION DURING THE 48 AND 72 HOURS FORECAST PERIODS AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND THE CURRENT GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM OVER EUROPE IN 72 HOURS. GROSS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 32.2N 49.6W 75 KTS 12HR VT 27/0000Z 33.7N 48.2W 75 KTS 24HR VT 27/1200Z 36.3N 45.5W 75 KTS 36HR VT 28/0000Z 38.9N 41.7W 70 KTS 48HR VT 28/1200Z 41.7N 36.6W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/1200Z 45.5N 20.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN