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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE T-NUMBER ARE REMAIN 4.0 OR 65
KNOTS.  MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 50 KNOTS AT THE 72-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...
THE SAME INTENSITY FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY.  THIS DECREASE IS LIKELY
DUE THE INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF KARL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 055/12.  THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
MOST OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THEM IT BUT NOT AS FAST AS INDICATED BY THE
UKMET AND BAM DEEP.
 
GROSS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 30.7N  52.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 31.8N  50.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 33.8N  48.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 36.3N  46.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 38.8N  43.6W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.6N  37.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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