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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE T-NUMBER ARE NOW 4.0 OR 65 KNOTS. 
THEREFORE KARL IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS.  MINIMUM HURRICANE
INTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 50
KNOTS AT THE 72-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS DECREASE IS LIKELY DUE
THE INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF KARL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 075/12.  THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY OR
EARLY TOMORROW.  MOST OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS IT BUT NOT AS FAST AS
INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND BAM DEEP.
 
GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 30.4N  53.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 30.9N  51.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 32.8N  49.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 35.2N  47.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 37.5N  44.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 42.2N  40.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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