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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WARRANT INCREASING KARLS INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 50 KT.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BEYOND 24 HOURS AS A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
 
KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/9 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST TODAY.  MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FOLLOWS IT.  
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 30.6N  54.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 30.2N  53.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 31.4N  51.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 32.8N  49.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 34.3N  47.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 37.0N  45.1W    50 KTS
 
 
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