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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998

SEVERAL SATELLITE FIXES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...IN FACT 
ITS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE OVERALL
PATTERN SUPPORTS THE UPGRADING OF THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST
SHOWS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA-
TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS WITH KARL APPROACHING 24 DEG C WATER.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/19 KNOTS.  KARL IS JUST EAST OF
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL EAST MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DE-AMPLIFIES. THIS IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE STATISTICAL MODEL A98E.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 33.5N  59.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 33.9N  55.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 34.5N  51.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 35.5N  46.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 36.6N  42.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     27/0000Z 38.5N  35.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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