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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED TO
BE NORTH OF BERMUDA IN THE EARLIER SPECIAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT. 
SATELLITE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FOR NHC TO BEGIN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON IT AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN.  ITS ORIGIN IS NOT CERTAIN BUT COULD BE
RELATED TO THE SMALL LOW NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA LAST WEEK...AND/OR THE REMNANTS OF
HERMINE.  THIS IS THE TENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE PAST 35 DAYS.

THE TD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST...090/22 KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BAND MOVING OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE LIMITED TRACK
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS TRACK WITH AN
EVENTUAL BEND TOWARD THE ENE.  THIS IS FOLLOWED FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 33.3N  61.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 33.4N  57.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 33.7N  53.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 34.3N  48.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 35.3N  44.2W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     26/1800Z 37.5N  37.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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