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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998
 
JEANNE REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXPOSED
CENTER JUST WEST OF -75C CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL RANGE FROM 55 TO
65 KNOTS AND IS THE BASIS FOR DOWNGRADING JEANNE TO TROPICAL 
STORM STATUS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 60 KNOTS.
 
THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/8 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST 
THAT JEANNE WILL BE STEERED ON A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST COURSE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO BEFORE A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES. NOGAPS CONTINUES 
A NORTHEAST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS AND REMAINS THE LEFT-MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHILE LBAR IS THE RIGHT-MOST WITH AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOTION....AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  THE NHC TRACK
TAKES JEANNE INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHERE WEAKENING...
AND A TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL STATUS..IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.
 
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS
TO THE AZORES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 36.8N  34.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 37.4N  32.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 38.2N  31.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 39.0N  29.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 39.5N  26.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     02/1800Z 39.5N  20.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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